Below is the update for the Big Bear real estate market as of 2/25/2008.

The residential properties listed for sale in Big Bear went up 4 from 1052 homes for sale to 1056. The number of homes in escrow is up by 9 from last week to 100 while sales year to date are now at 53 Big Bear homes sold since the beginning of the year.

Vacant land listings actually went down 6 from 328 to 322 current vacant land listings on the market for sale. Pending sales for vacant land in Big Bear are up by 1 property this week from 24 to 25 as are the total sales from 5 to 6.

The rest of the real estate market in Big Bear including condos, government leases, commercial and residential investments, & business opportunity remained relatively the same.

See last week’s numbers here.

Be sure to check back here every Monday for your Big Bear Market Update or click here to get this emailed to you every week.

* Information updated weekly, courtesy of the Big Bear MLS.

One question that seems to come up often from people who visit the Big Bear area is, “How far down is the lake level?” The typical answer from me has always been more of a range, rather than a specific amount.

The Big Bear Municipal Water District, also called BBMWD, has been keeping records of the levels on Big Bear Lake for some time now. Their website has the lake level history going back to 1985. Big Bear MWD takes weekly measurements and posts the results to their website here.

As you can see, the levels of Big Bear Lake will fluctuate. It was nearly full in June 2006 and is now close to 5 feet down (up 2 feet though from the first of the year). We are having a great winter so far so it would not surprise me to see the lake level close to full come Spring and Summer. The lake was almost 18 feet down in Oct. of 2004 and rose to almost full (3 feet down) by the Summer of 2005.

The lake level will usually drop about 1 foot per month during the Summer due to evaporation. So, the levels of Big Bear Lake will drop about 5 feet a year without any new precipitation. Drought conditions will also lead to lower levels as we saw from 2000 to 2005.

Lake levels will have an effect on the values of Big Bear lakefront properties too. A good rule of thumb is that the lower the lake level, the lower the prices will be on the lakefront properties, irrespective of other market conditions.

A good example of this was during the real estate boom of 2002 to 2005. Lakefront properties were not going up at the same rate as other properties in Big Bear. This was also right in the middle of the drought and lower lake levels. As soon at the water levels of Big Bear Lake came up, so did the lakefront prices. This is why it is important to know if you are buying a shallow or deep water lakefront property.

Thinking of selling your Big Bear lakefront home? Then waiting until Summer might be the best time as that is when the lake level will be the highest and look the best. It all depends on the precipitation we receive the winter before, plus what the current real estate market conditions look like at that time.

If you are curious about lakefront properties for sale, or have questions about your Big Bear lakefront property, feel free to contact me for more details.

* photos used courtesy of BBMWD and teachtechmcg

The average time it will take for the Big Bear real estate market to absorb the number of homes for sale continues to remain longer than 2 years.

What does the absorption rate mean? In simple terms, the absorption rate is the amount of time it will take for a specified set amount of properties to be absorbed based on current real estate market conditions.

Taking the 1052 homes currently available on the market for sale in Big Bear, divided by the 29 homes for that sold in January, gives the Big Bear real estate market a staggering 36.27 months absorption rate for home sales.

If you are more curious about absorption rates, take a look at this previous article I wrote last month.

January through April are typically the four slowest months of the year for Big Bear sales so expect this number to go down as we proceed throughout the year. Real estate sales should pick up for the seasonal adjustment but so will the inventory levels.

From a pricing standpoint, the properties listed for sale in Big Bear under $300,000 and over $1,000,000 did the best during the month of January while those between $301,000 to $500,000 and $801,000 to $1,000,000 did worse.

From a location standpoint, the properties listed for sale in Big Bear in areas like Big Bear Lake West (Boulder Bay, Papoose Bay, North Estates) and Big Bear Lake Central (Gilner Point, Village area, Ironwood Estates) did the best. The areas that saw little to no activity at all include: Big Bear Lake East (Eagle Point, Heavenly Valley & Winterpark Estates, and the Snow Summit area), Whispering Forest, Erwin Lake, Baldwin Lake, and Lake Williams.

If you are considering selling or buying a home in Big Bear area in the next few months, make sure to keep these numbers in mind. Big Bear absorption rates will be updated monthly here at The Big Bear Skinny so be sure to check back often.

I wish I were bright and articulate enough to answer the questions above without any help. 

Luckily, I came across this video and slide show during past week.  They provide a simple (video) and humorous (slide show) way of understanding what happened with the mortgage subprime meltdown, why it happened, and what may lay ahead in the future for the rest of us.

The video is provided courtesy of Mr. Dan Green of The Mortgage Reports.  Going back to the basics with stick figures and drawings is an easy way of understanding a difficult concept.  Take a look below or the link for the video can be found here.

Illustrating How Mortgage Guideline Changes Impact Homeowners

I received the second slide in an email from a local friend and real estate/economy pessimist here in Big Bear, Mr. Jack Hartley.  He said it was, “even simple enough for you real estate people to understand.” If there is ever anything negative to pop up regarding the current status of our economy, Jack is sure to forward it my way.  Keep’em coming Jack!

I am not sure of the author of the slide show, but it is a simple, crude, and quite humorous way of looking at the mortgage situation. 

A word of caution however, there are some grown-up words throughout so don’t watch if you are easily offended.

A large version can be found here courtesy of The Martix.

Who knows for sure when the total fall out from these mortgages will work its way through the system.  Fortunately for Big Bear, we are not seeing a large amount of REO, bank owned, or short sale properties on the market.  We do have a few, but not the vast majority like I hear are coming up in other parts of CA.

Getting a loan these days is all about going back to the basics of having good credit, a solid job/income, a sizable amount down (close to 20%), and good income to debt ratio.

Below is an update for the Big Bear Real Estate Market.

While activity seemed to be picking up recently, the number of pending properties has actually been holding steady for the past few months. The listing inventory has continually declined over the same time frame, which is very typical for our market. We will probably bottom out in the next couple months and then shoot back up to the 1500 mark for residential properties around July or so. Again, this is typical for the Big Bear market.

Be sure to check back here every Monday for your Big Bear Market Update or click here to get this emailed to you every week.

* Information updated weekly, courtesy of the Big Bear MLS.

Based on the January home sales report below, I don’t know who is hurting more right now, the real estate agents in Big Bear or the home sellers. With only 29 home sales closed in the Big Bear Lake area during January 2008, times are tough for both I would imagine.

The news great for buyers as there are some motivated sellers, lots of properties to choose from (approx. 1094 as of Jan .31), lower prices & lower interest rates.

January home sales were down 47% in Big Bear compared to the previous month (55) and down 47% from Jan. 2007’s number of 55 homes sales.

The median price (which is not very accurate which such a small sample) was surprisingly up a modest 5% compared to Dec. 2007 but down 12% compared to the same month last year.

This is the first month that I am using the number of homes listed and median asking price. I cannot go back and pull this data the same as sales so I will have to keep it updated from this point.

I am actually quite surprised by these numbers as things seemed to be picking up the last 3-4 weeks. There has been increased property calls and more properties going into escrow (currently there are 91 homes in escrow).

I guess this will show itself more in the Feb. and March sales number but we will have to wait and see on that.

* Note: The chart above will be updated on a monthly basis. It represents single family home sales in the Big Bear area, including Big Bear Lake, Big Bear City, Moonridge, Fox Farm, Sugarloaf, Erwin Lake, & Fawnskin. Data courtesy of the Big Bear MLS. These numbers do not include raw land or condos.